News and Events

press releases

Graziadio School's Inaugural Economic Forecast Conference Predicts Slow but Sure Recovery for LA Marketplace

Nearly 400 business professionals attended "What’s Next LA? The Road to Economic Recovery," the first annual Los Angeles economic forecast conference, sponsored by the Graziadio School of Business and Management, Beacon Economics, and the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce. The event took place on Tuesday, July 28 at the Los Angeles Airport Marriott.

Graziadio School Dean Linda Livingstone served as master of ceremonies for the inaugural conference and Pepperdine finance professor John Paglia was one of the featured speakers. Paglia reported that the majority of private lenders anticipate continued economic decline over the next 12 months. Constrains on the economy and a flattening or decline in U.S. GDP will increase demand for private investment and capital will be harder to come by, he prognosticated.

Paglia unveiled his private capital markets outlook, the first comprehensive study of expected returns, risks, and requirements to compete for capital from lenders and market providers. The finance expert also shared the results of an industry-based survey live at the event and in a printed report available online.

Paglia explained to the audience that the majority of private lenders anticipate continued economic decline over the next 12 months. Constrains on the economy and a flattening or decline in U.S. GDP will increase demand for private investment and capital will be harder to come by, he said.

Chris Thornberg, founding principal of Beacon Economics, was another featured speaker. He told attendees that the recession is close to ending, but recovery will be slow and painful. “We clearly see the bottom,” he said. “It looks really hard.”

According to Brad Kemp, Beacon Economics’ director of regional research, Angelenos can expect unemployment to peak at 13.3 percent in the second quarter of next year before it starts to fall. He predicted that continued sluggishness in housing and consumer demand will continue driving job losses and sluggish sales tax revenue.

Despite a hard and slow climb to recovery, the economists forecast that California will emerge a much stronger, more competitive economic engine in the long run.

The Graziadio School’s first economic conference attracted ample media attention, with reporters from NBC, KNX 1080, Los Angeles Business Journal, Daily News, CNBC and Investment Dealers' Digest on hand.

Another conference is planned for September 24, when Beacon Economics and the Graziadio School will again partner on a forecast at the Fairmont Hotel in San Jose, Calif. That event will explore the road to economic recovery for Silicon Valley and surrounding communities.

For more information, visit the Graziadio School of Business and Management at bschool.pepperdine.edu.