News and Events
School of Public Policy and California Business Roundtable Release First Results of Innovative Polling Series
The California Business Roundtable and the Pepperdine University School of Public Policy released the first results in their newly-launched innovative, bimonthly polling series Thursday, Jul. 19. The series, designed to track voter attitudes and opinions on the major initiatives moving toward November's election, uses the latest technology to simulate the context in which voters are able to read and consider all prospective initiatives before voting by mail or at the polls on Election Day.
"This poll shows that Californians have not yet made up their mind about a number of key policy issues in November's election including taxes, capital punishment, and campaign finance," says M4 director of research services Chris Condon. "Much of the results will come down to turnout. On the highest-profile initiatives like Governor Brown's tax measure, Molly Munger's tax measure, and repeal of the death penalty, support was highest among voters with a Democratic voting history."
Future polling will include ballot arguments and other relevant information as it becomes available.
Of the significance of the polling series, Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable notes, "Californians will decide major public policy issues such as taxes, budget processes, capital punishment, and campaign finance at the ballot box. To better inform our members, the general public and opinion leaders on voter opinion and trends, we are using the most up-to-date survey technology to track how it shifts over the course of the upcoming campaigns."
"M4's innovative ballot mirroring approach closely simulates the voters' actual experience when they vote by mail or at a polling place," says Michael A. Shires, Pepperdine associate professor of public policy. "We are confident these surveys will allow us to accurately depict Californians' attitudes toward the initiatives and candidates on the fall ballot."
The twice-monthly polling will track likely voters opinions on the statewide initiative campaigns and will also include Presidential and U.S. Senate campaigns. Full results of the poll will be available on the California Business Roundtable and School of Public Policy Web sites.
The methodology that M4 Strategies used to conduct the polling process is an online opinion poll of 800 likely California General Election voters from July 16 to July 17, 2012. Participants viewed the "ballot initiative" page and recorded how they are inclined to vote given the current information, including a review of the Title and Summary created by the Attorney General. As ballot arguments and other information become available from the Secretary of State it will be included in future surveys, including a Spanish-language version of the ballot.
When taking the survey, participants were able, and encouraged, to review all of the qualified ballot initiatives before voting. This instrument design is intended to simulate the context in which voters are able to read and consider all prospective initiatives before voting by mail or at the polls on Election Day.
For more information, visit the School of Public Policy Web site.