One Year After Palisades Fire, New Study Finds California Could Face Decades-Long Road to Recovery
MALIBU, California – One year after the start of the Palisades Fire, a new report from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy and Beacon Economics reveals that rebuilding after California wildfires is far slower and more complex than commonly understood — leaving thousands of homes unreconstructed for years and creating long-term economic and housing supply consequences.
The report, “Burned, Sold, and Rebuilt? The Long Road to Recovery After California Wildfires,” is part of Pepperdine’s Alternative Viewpoint Research Initiative and draws on proprietary property-level data from ATTOM Data Solutions and historical records from CAL FIRE to examine post-fire rebuilding patterns across major California wildfires.
Key findings show dramatic variation in recovery timelines. While nearly 76% of homes destroyed in the 2017 Tubbs Fire were rebuilt within six years, fewer than 30% of homes lost in the 2018 Camp Fire were rebuilt within five years.
Recovery following the 2018 Woolsey Fire — which closely resembles recent Los Angeles County fires in geography and regulatory conditions — has been particularly slow, with only 34% of destroyed homes rebuilt through fiscal year 2024.
The study also challenges assumptions about whether selling fire-damaged properties leads to faster recovery. While homes sold within a year of a wildfire are somewhat more likely to be rebuilt than those retained by original owners, the majority of destroyed properties — sold or not — remain unreconstructed years later.
“We set out to examine whether properties sold by owners soon after the fires were actually rebuilt faster… and the evidence shows they were not,” said Justin Niakamal, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the study’s author. “An overly complex rebuild process continues to pose a significant barrier, underscoring how unprepared the state is to efficiently replace housing after repeated fire disasters.”
“As the policy school closest to the Palisades Fire, we feel a particular responsibility to highlight the ongoing policy challenges resulting from the catastrophe,” noted Pepperdine School of Public Policy dean Pete Peterson. “From research into the economic impacts of the PCH closures last year, to this report on rebuilding, we have an abiding community interest in providing possible solutions and helping the area to flourish,” he added.
Beyond housing, the report documents severe and persistent impacts on local government finances. Property tax revenues tied to destroyed homes decline by an average of 74% in the first full fiscal year following a wildfire and remain more than 50% below pre-fire levels even five years later, limiting funding for schools, infrastructure, and public safety services.
The analysis identifies several factors associated with higher rebuilding rates, including population density, newer housing stock, and fewer regulatory barriers. Contrary to common perception, household income alone does not significantly increase the likelihood that a destroyed home will be rebuilt once other conditions are accounted for.
The report concludes with policy recommendations aimed at accelerating recovery, including streamlining permitting processes, addressing construction labor shortages, and investing in debris removal and environmental testing — particularly in areas with older housing and challenging terrain.
Read the full report here.
About Beacon Economics, LLC
Beacon Economics, LLC is a non-partisan, independent research and consulting firm dedicated to delivering accurate, insightful, and objectively-based economic analysis that enables its clients to make informed decisions about investment, growth, revenue, and policy. The company is based in Los Angeles and is certified as a Small Business Enterprise (SBE) within the state of California. Learn more at www.BeaconEcon.com
About Pepperdine University School of Public Policy
Pepperdine’s School of Public Policy (SPP) is built on a distinctive philosophy of nurturing public leaders to use tools of analysis and policy design to effect real change. Grounded in understanding policy's moral and distinctly American elements, SPP prepares graduates for careers as leaders by offering a master’s degree in public policy and three joint-degree programs. The school’s Davenport Institute for Public Engagement and Civic Leadership promotes citizen participation in governance through major conferences, trainings, seminars, and published research. Follow SPP on Facebook, X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube.
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